2021: A very good year

Yes, 2021 was a very good year indeed... not. It truly wasn't much to speak of. I ran only a fraction of the usual miles due to my Achilles surgery, and the miles I did run were the slowest ever. And yet, there is some good news. Allow me to enumerate it.

I am running again!

I am running more and better than I was just a few short weeks ago.

I am running mostly pain-free (I think I'm glad I had the surgery. I think.)

It's good to be with my running friends again.

And I believe that's about it. But it's something, and after being out for several months, it feels really good.

Okay, here are the numbers. I'm not proud of them, but I feel the need to report them. Don't ask why.

Total distance: 1,280.04 miles (I'm surprised it was this many, but most were before my May surgery. Also, it's the fewest annual miles since 1987!)

Average pace: 11:53 per mile (My slowest ever by far, yet I'm surprised it wasn't even slower)

Races: Only 2, the Brunswick Marathon and the Boston 2.1 Half (That's it! I also started the Buckeye Woods run.)

I'm hopeful that 2022 will be better. 

Happy New Year!

Editorial: The Ethics of Marathoning

I wrote this as a Guest Editorial for Marathon & Beyond. It appeared in the Jan/Feb 2011 Issue.

The Ethics of Marathoning

A Guest Editorial

By Dan Horvath

“I couldn’t run the marathon that I had registered for, and transfers weren’t allowed, so I gave my entry to a friend. I didn’t know he would also wear my timing chip. He placed first among the women in my age group using my name! I felt very bad for the other women in the age group, and tried to call the RD to let him know. It was too late; they’d already given out the awards and published the results.”

More and more marathons and ultras are filling up, and they’re doing so earlier and earlier. This puts a constraint on runners who would prefer to register for events later rather than sooner. Several consequences emerge from this pattern:

1. Race organizers are happy because they don’t need to worry as much about making ends meet. They have all the registered runners they can handle. Moreover, once a race sells out, it’s likely to do so again the following year, and probably even earlier.

2. Those concerned with the growth of our sport are also pleased to witness another indicator of its overall health.

3. As noted, runners need to plan their events earlier and more carefully.

4. Runners may be closed out of an event they’d counted on running. This may cause them to:

   1. Find another race.

   2. Bandit the race.

   3. Use someone else’s registration, when available.

5. Runners who register early enough may find that they’ve paid for an event they cannot attend due to injury, lack of training, or scheduling conflict. These runners may:

   1. Lose out on their entry fee, unless the race has a refund policy or lets them defer it to a future year.

   2. Sell or give their entry to another runner. (See 4c above.) This may or may not be allowed by race organizers.

Some of the increase in marathon participants is being mitigated by the number of new marathons and ultras inaugurated each year. The proliferation of races is another sign of our sport’s healthy growth. One option available to those left out of events of their choice is to run a new and unfilled event, or to pick a smaller, unfilled event, because many smaller events don’t fill up.

Race organizers recognize that there must be restrictions and rules for events such as marathons and ultras. These are sometimes imposed by limited availability of resources. What obligation do participants have to comply with those rules? Is there anything inherently wrong with banditing or running a race as someone else? How about running with headphones or a pacer in events where these are disallowed?

A little old lady pays her attorney fee with cash in an envelope. After she leaves, the lawyer discovers that she has overpaid by accidentally including an extra $100 bill. He now faces an ethical dilemma: should he tell his partner?

This little lawyer joke summarizes just about everything I knew about ethics before I began thinking about the questions noted above. There is, first of all, the question of legality. Is it legal or illegal to deliberately disobey event rules? Secondly, even if such things are legal, are they ethical?

Legality

There are some instances where the rules that are established in marathons are clearly there for legal reasons. One obvious instance is the waiver plus signature area on the entry form, or its electronic equivalent for online registrations. Here you, the runner, usually agree to release all claims and liabilities against the event and/or the race organizers. Participants understand the need for such agreements; without them, the potential for lawsuits would likely make any race events impossible to put on.

A clear instance where banditing or running as another person is illegal is when crossing an international border. This occurs during the Detroit Free Press Marathon and the Niagara Falls International Marathon. Runners must show their passports as they check in, and they must present their bib numbers by wearing them in front as they cross the frontier from the US to Canada and from Canada to the US Regarding the question of giving an entry to a friend, the Detroit race information states, “Absolutely not! There are no refunds or transfers allowed. Because of the international route, all participants must be approved by the Bureau of Customs and Border Patrol. Failure to observe Homeland Security measures can result in criminal charges.”

If an event has legal permission from local authorities to close roads to any other traffic, does this mean that only registered participants are allowed on the course? Does this make banditing illegal? Here is where the question of legality becomes murky.

The Towpath Marathon in Ohio is run almost entirely on the Towpath Trail within Cuyahoga Valley National Park. The park service erects signs indicating that the Towpath Trail is closed to all but registered runners and race officials during the event. This makes it clear that unauthorized users of the Towpath would violate a park service rule.

Bandits have been a common occurrence at the Boston Marathon for many years. It’s been said that race organizers and police “look the other way.” This doesn’t make running the race legal for the bandits. Except in instances where homeland security is an issue, the question of legality boils down to practicality. Police or park officials may have the legal authority to (try to) remove bandits, pacers, and others who don’t belong on a closed course. Whether they would consider it worthwhile to expend the time and effort to do so is quite another matter.

Ethics 101

Putting aside the legal questions, let’s examine some ethical questions that come to light when runners don’t follow the rules established for a running event. Although I was not a philosophy major, I am nonetheless fascinated by the subject of ethics. My research has yielded the following:

Ethics may be defined as “the study of morality,” those systems that describe our views about justice, right and wrong, and good and bad. (Source: Various sources, including http://www.wikipedia.org/.)

One branch of ethics is called normative ethics, which attempts to explain the determination of right and wrong actions. For many, religious beliefs help determine the right thing to do. But regardless of religion, are there universal right and wrong actions? One theory related to normative ethics is called deontology. This theory, espoused by Immanuel Kant and others, makes the argument that decisions should be made considering both one's duties and also the rights of others. One should question: “What will happen to me as well as to others if I do this?” Another normative ethics theory, consequentialism, argues that the morality of an action is contingent on the action's outcome or result. Do the ends justify the means? Taken together, these theories help describe our decisions and actions in various situations. 

Whether we recognize it or not, we face ethical questions every day. Should I exceed the speed limit? Return change given incorrectly in my favor back to a store? Cheat, even a little bit, on my taxes? Even in situations such as these, we ought to ask ourselves: If I do something to benefit myself, will anyone else be hurt by my action? Secondly, Even if no one is immediately hurt, what if everybody did this? In other words, what are the consequences? If no one paid taxes, where would our government get income with which to defend our shores, pave our roads, and educate our children? If drivers didn’t follow basic traffic laws, wouldn’t there be a lot more accidents?

Next, let's examine the ethical consequences in some specific cases where runners do not follow certain race rules.

Banditing: The practice of running in a race which a runner hasn’t registered or paid for has been around for decades. Reasons for banditing include being closed out of an event, inability to qualify for a race, and perception that the race fee is too high. The practice occurs more at some events than others, and has been a virtual tradition at the Boston Marathon. The few bandits who speak up, often on Internet discussion forums, usually give justifications like those previously noted as reasons for banditing. They often assert that their practice doesn’t hurt anyone. They may argue that they start in the back, don’t use race amenities such as aid stations, and don’t cross the finish line so as not to interfere with the results  although some bandits do these things as well. They almost always resent being branded as thieves. “Who am I stealing from?” they ask.

Registered runners react to bandits with emotions ranging from indifference to intolerance. Their reaction tends to be more on the negative side toward bandits who get in their way, are seen using race resources, or who muddle the results. Race officials tend to be a little less forgiving. Mark Remy of Runner's World’s “RW Daily” blog suggests that perhaps the problem would diminish if we didn’t use such a cool sounding name as “bandit.” He suggests some more emotionally tainted terms, such as “leeches”, “parasites”, and “freeloaders”.

The rationalizations fascinate me. I’ve even heard one bandit state that he “hates” race organizing committees, and bandits races in order to spite them.

Swapping Registration and Bib Numbers: Take a look at the table Number of Marathon Finishers by Year in the sidebar. That’s a whole lot of marathon runners. With this many people, there are bound to be many situations where folks find themselves registered, but for one reason or another are unable to run. Other runners who were closed out of events  as more are every year  may be able to benefit by finding the registrants who can’t make the scene. In a more perfect world, race officials would be able to allow runners to swap registrations with one another, or defer their registrations to a future year. In fact, some do allow such things. The reason many do not allow them is because of the effort required. A large event may require one or more volunteers dedicated entirely to registration swaps. Many race directors feel that these volunteers could be used much more effectively at different jobs.

Some runners feel that swapping registrations, even if specifically disallowed, is not ethically wrong. After all, someone paid for that bib number, and someone is running with it. Why should race officials care if it happens to be a different person?

Another consideration is that although the number of runners in virtually every event is growing, the number of events is growing as well. Running USA notes that there were a record five inaugural marathons with more than one thousand runners each in 2009. These are just the medium to large ones. In fact, runners closed out of marathons may have their best chance of getting in at a smaller event.

Swapping of numbers is arguably growing much faster than banditing. We could unearth no hard data, but anecdotal evidence is overwhelming. The practice is also arguably more defensible than banditing, since someone did indeed pay the fee. Yet when done outside the rules, it is still a violation. There are obvious medical and emergency concerns that argue against the practice. Importantly, race results become skewed when one person claiming to be another crosses the line. But as we’ve seen, those who do swap numbers without telling officials often see nothing wrong or unethical with doing so.

Some races expect a certain percentage of DNS’s (Did Not Start), and this is taken into account when creating the price structure for the race. The ones who do not show up and do not use what they have paid for help to keep the cost down for those who do.

Pacing: Pacing is allowed in some ultras, but generally not in most marathons. In many cases, it isn’t even mentioned in the rules. It is interesting that paid professional “rabbits” are recruited for many high-level track meets and some major road marathons, yet all pacing is banned from most championship level events. Whom does pacing help and hurt? Is it ethical to have a pacer?

Course-Cutting: It’s surprising that course-cutting is even an issue since almost everyone views it as cheating. An incident arose a few years ago, however, that came to the attention of many who are interested in the culture of marathoning. At the 2005 Marine Corps Marathon, the coach of some charity runners advised his group to cut about four miles off the course so that they would be able to receive finishers’ medals by crossing the finish line within the seven-hour deadline. When he learned of the incident, race director Rick Nealis disqualified those involved. What is interesting to me is not the question of whether to DQ the runners; that decision, in my mind, was a no-brainer. What fascinates me is the thought process that led to the decision to cut the course in the first place. It must be something like, “I trained and paid my money, and I put forth some amount of effort, so I want to cross that finish line and acquire my medal.” Never mind that the accomplishment isn’t quite up to the standard that everyone else had to achieve in order to earn their medals. Like banditing, the justification for this one is difficult to comprehend.

Headphones: Like pacing, the use of headphones is disallowed in some events for various reasons. Like pacing, the use of headphones may indeed provide an advantage to the user.

Applying Ethics (What You Should Do)

Some of our most revered historical figures became heroic precisely because they broke rules. Certain laws were perceived as unfair, unjust or excessive; to break such a law was considered to be an act of the highest ethical behavior. How should runners who disobey race regulations be viewed? Are they heroes, criminals, or something in between?

A perusal of several blogs, including Caitlin Boyle’s “A Healthy Tipping Point,” reveals a wide range of opinions about some of these issues, but there appears to be a general consensus: banditing is something akin to stealing, and therefore is not acceptable behavior; but other rule violations, such as unauthorized number swapping, are okay, with a few caveats. A search of Web sites such as eBay and Craigslist shows bib numbers for various marathons for sale. My query is this: Does it even occur to the buyers and sellers to ask the question whether such a practice is ethical?

Most races do a commendable job of being explicit about their rules. For example, the Los Angeles Marathon Web site states, “All entry fees are non-refundable and non-transferable.” The Chevron Houston Marathon and the ING New York City Marathon allow registered runners who are unable to participate to receive a guarantee of entry for the following year, but do not allow transfers between runners. Most other regulations at these and other events are similarly clear. Runners who take even a little time to study the rules should get a clear idea of what is expected of them by the race organizers.

My take on all this? First of all, I’m a race director, so I may have some bias about ethics. I’ll say this nevertheless: Ask yourself whether playing outside the regulations is ethical. I would hope that if you do so, you would generally come down on the side of playing by the stated rules. If you don’t like the rules for any reason, you have several options.

1. Abide by the rules as they stand. You may not like some aspects of a race; perhaps other factors make running it worthwhile anyhow.

2. Work to change the rules. You can even try to contact race officials and offer to help them with transferring registrations between runners. Understand, however, that in many cases the regulations were put in place by runners and/or organizers who want the best for everyone; there just may be a good reason for them being the way they are.

3. Apply some ethical behavior: vote with your feet and pick a race where you can live with the rules.

SIDEBAR

Number of Marathon Finishers by Year

Year Estimated US Marathon Finisher Total

1976	25,000
1980	143,000
1990	224,000
1995	293,000
2000	353,000
2004	386,000
2005	395,000
2006	410,000
2007	412,000
2008	425,000
2009	467,000
	(record total)

Courtesy of Running USA (http://www.runningusa.org).

INCLUDE PHOTO OF A MARATHON START

Feels Like

Weather forecasters often talk about 'feels like' temperatures, usually with wind (if it's cold) or humidity (if it's hot) factored in. Runners can consider a run that feels like it was longer or faster than it really was for some reason (the weather, being out of shape, having run too many consecutive days, etc.). With this in mind, we can say that today's running 'felt like' much faster and farther than it really was.

Can we blame the weather? No, it was in the forties and that was wonderful. Was it from being tired from yesterday's run? Nope, I didn't run yesterday. Was it from being out of shape? Okay, now we're getting somewhere.

It's Christmas Eve, and it's Medina. My running buddies and I are starting out from the Square, following the Medina Half-Marathon course. We know we won't be running the whole shebang today, but this is as good a direction as any. I'm thrilled to be able to stay with the bunch. We're clicking off sub-11-minute miles, something that would have been impossible for me just a couple short weeks ago.

Yes, I know. An 11-minute mile a year ago would have seemed extremely pedestrian to Dan, the good runner. But that was then, this is now. And it 'feels' fast. In fact, I am quite happy with the pace so far. That is, until I get tired.

It didn't take long. Three to four miles in, I'm hitting the wall. It feels like it did when I'd run 22 or more miles in the old days. But this is the new days. I struggle, yet manage to keep going, stay with the group, and finish the six-miler at the Square.

Yes, it felt like it was longer (much longer) and faster. But I'll take it. (What were the other choices?)

YMMV (Your Mileage May Vary)

Another article I wrote for Marathon & Beyond required a great deal of analysis and effort. But the result is one of my favorites. I also received a whole lot of feedback about it, mostly good. There was even a reference to it in Runner's World. So from the January/February 2002 M & B, here is YMMV.

YMMV (Your Mileage May Vary)

The Quest to Determine the Most Relevant Training Elements Begins with Examination of One Runner’s Data

by Dan Horvath

Auto manufacturers are careful to qualify their gas mileage claims with the phrase, “Your mileage may vary”. And so it is with distance running as well. What works for one person may or may not work for another. There will be varying degrees of correlation between one runner’s training regimen and his or her results and those of another.

One of the problems in determining how best to train for and run marathons is that there are so many varied opinions about what works and what doesn’t. Every coach and writer has his or her own biased views about what you ought to do to maximize your training and realize your potential. Unfortunately, much of this is not backed up by hard evidence. In many cases, the data required for adequate analysis simply does not exist.

Over the years, I’ve been collecting an extensive amount of data about my own training and racing. Although this data applies only to myself, and your mileage may vary, some analysis will still be useful to others. At best, you may be able to apply some of the deductions to your own training. And at the very least, you will be able to find out what has worked or not worked for this one individual.

Based on the analysis of the data, we will be able to examine the following:

• Correlation between overall training factors (such as total mileage, overall pace and mile repeat pace) and marathon performance

• Correlation between various long run factors (such as long run pace and distance) and marathon performance

• Correlation between various other miscellaneous factors (such as weight and age) and marathon performance

These elements were chosen for two reasons: first, they may actually provide useful information, and second, I actually have data relating to them.

The Data

In order to determine which training elements have the most influence on a given race, we must first select the marathons, and then the related training in which to study. Here are the criteria for choosing which of my 50+ marathons to include in the analysis:

• There must be data available relating to all of the factors noted.

• The marathon itself must have been a serious effort, not just a “long training run”.

• I must have not become injured or sick just prior to, or during the race.

• I must not have “hit the wall” badly during the race. This is because these efforts are generally precipitated from starting out too fast, and then finishing with a much slower time than I would have had, had I simply run a steady but slower pace.

In other words, I was interested in the races where I would and should expect a certain result, based as much as possible on the training itself. I came up with 30 races that fit the criteria.

It so happens that for many of these marathons, the expected result was a time in the neighborhood of three hours (for more on how to break 3 hours, see “Six Fifty-Two” in the November/December 1999 issue of Marathon and Beyond). Some of these efforts were successful and some not. For the purposes of this study, however, that objective shouldn’t matter. The correlation between the various training elements and the marathon performance ought to apply regardless of the time goal.

Several environmental factors, such as weather conditions, and what one ate the night before the race, may cause variation in marathon performances. Using larger quantities of data help to mitigate these in such a way that they begin to lose significance, however. They will not be taken into account for this study.

Most marathon training programs span a time period of 12 to 18 weeks. Although a longer build-up period is generally preferable, often the first several weeks are devoted to base building. The specific factors to be studied here assume that the subject already has a solid base, so the period chosen for the data is generally one of 12 weeks prior to the marathon.

Information, Correlation and Causation

Although I’ve collected all of this data, I haven’t always done so great a job of processing it into useful information. Sure, I do look back once in a while to determine some of the training that lead to a successful race effort. But these looks back are not very qualitative or quantitative. A detailed analysis at the data is the goal of this exercise. The transformation of the available data into useful information involves correlating the training data with the marathon performance data by use of statistical methods.

Probability and Statistics were not among my strongest courses back in my college days. Those days, in turn, happen to be a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. I am fortunate, however, to have two daughters in college who were able to help their dad out with his “homework”. You won’t need to be a statistician to understand the basic principals here, however.

To show correlation, each set of training data is plotted against the marathon performance data. In addition, a correlation coefficient, R, is computed. R is a number than describes the relationship between two sets of data. I’m sure there’s a reason why it’s called R, but please don’t ask me what that reason is. To make the correlations more meaningful, R is squared and then multiplied by 100 in order to arrive at the percentage of variation in one factor explained by the other factor.

To put it more concisely, for each set of training data versus the marathon performance data, a scatter diagram will be created, and the percentage of variation will be calculated; the larger the percentage, the stronger the correlation. The actual formula for R, as well as that for any other method of measuring correlation, is left as an exercise for the reader. For my part, I used Microsoft Excel.

There is one other thing. Each daughter independently informed me that, “correlation does not imply causation”. Causation, I said, is the whole idea of training. On the other hand, it is conceivable that a strong correlation between, say, mile repeat pace and marathon pace may simply be due to being in shape (or young, or not being injured, etc.), and not due to one thing causing the other. More on this later.

Overall Training Elements

Correlation between marathon pace and overall mileage

A non-running acquaintance overheard a friend and I discussing his most recent marathon. The acquaintance said, “Wow, a marathon! How did you train for it?” My friend, who didn’t want to be bothered explaining the intricacies of his training to someone who wouldn’t understand (or even ultimately care), replied, “I ran a lot.”

I liked his answer. It really sums things up, doesn’t it? If you want to run a marathon, you’ve got to run a lot. If you want to run a fast marathon, you should probably run even more. But how close is the correlation between number of training miles and the resulting marathon pace?

In comparing the total number of miles run during the 12 weeks prior to a marathon to the actual marathon pace, there is a fairly strong negative correlation, and a percentage of variation of 11.47%. This means that for me, more miles do relate to a faster marathon pace.

Correlation between marathon pace and overall pace

There can be no doubt that training is specific. In order to run fast during a race, you must run fast during your training. The question is, how specific is it? How close is the correlation between the overall training pace over the previous 12-week period and the resulting marathon pace?

The correlation analysis yields a percentage of variation of 0.42%. This number is so small that it is almost insignificant. Could it be that it doesn’t matter how fast I train? Clearly, overall training pace is not as important as I had thought.

It occurs to me that perhaps for my more successful efforts I had more variation in my training pace. That is, I may have done my fast runs faster, although my slow runs may have been slower. I may also have done more fast training. The best way I have to measure this sort of thing is to examine the number of races during the marathon build-up period, and my mile repeat pace. The assumption is that I would be doing these runs much faster than my normal training pace. In addition, the number of races gives us some idea of quantity of fast training efforts. See below for the analysis.

Correlation between marathon pace and the number of previous races done during the marathon build-up

Does it help to run other races as part of the marathon training? I often try to fit some shorter races into my schedule. For the data, I examined the total number of races run during the prior 12 weeks. Marathons or other races done as “training runs” are not included, but marathons that were run as races are counted as races. Of course for a serious attempt at a fast marathon, you generally should not be running another serious marathon within the previous 3 months, but there are always exceptions. Your marathons may vary.

With the exception of those few longer ones, the majority of the races were in the 10K range. It would have been nice to analyze these race paces versus the marathon pace, but the distances do still vary; it may be anything from 5K’s to other marathons. Pace calculators, used to compute one distance’s anticipated pace based on a race pace of a different distance, are available elsewhere.

Comparing the total number of prior races run to the marathon pace itself yields a percentage of variation of 15.20%. This means that for me, it appears that it does help to run other races prior to the marathon, and the more, the better.

Contrast this with the philosophy of making the marathon one’s first road race of any kind!

Correlation between marathon pace and average mile repeat pace

For all of the marathons on the list, my preparation has included several sessions of one-mile repeats. These interval sessions are generally done in the form of 1600 meter repeats, with a 400-meter rest in between. Of course they also include warm-up and cool-down periods. I usually do one session of 6 to 9 of these each week during the previous 12 weeks leading up to the race. The exceptions come when I may have substituted other speed work, say 1200 meter repeats or a race or tempo run. I also usually avoid or curtail these sessions during the final two weeks. Due to all these variables, I was not able to analyze the number or frequency of repeats; only their pace.

The pace for the repeats is important, however. I usually try to run them at close to my current 10K pace. How closely correlated is this pace with the resulting marathon pace? The percentage of variation is 34.81%. This indicates a strong correlation: a faster average mile repeat pace definitely does relate to a faster marathon pace.

Long Runs

There is general agreement that the long run is the cornerstone of any marathon training program. Opinions vary widely, however, on how long the long runs should be, and the optimum pace for these runs.

Correlation between marathon pace and distance of long runs

There has been much controversy over the years regarding how long long runs ought to be. Some say that they should not exceed 20 miles, so that one is able to resume mid-week training sooner. Others have opined that in order to prepare for the rigors of the last 10K of the marathon itself, much longer training runs, say 27 to 29 miles, are necessary. A more recent, and I think, sensible, notion has come along that one should run long runs of the same amount of time that one expects to run the marathon. This may indicate a maximum of about 22 miles, depending on the difference between marathon and long run pace.

I calculated the average distance for all runs 18 miles and over during the 12 weeks prior to the marathon. These runs have generally been done on a weekly basis. The comparison to marathon pace yielded a slight surprise: the percentage of variation is only 0.02%, so there is no significant correlation. This means that I haven’t necessarily run faster marathons when my long runs have been longer; the distance of those runs doesn’t appear to matter. Perhaps I’ve been over doing it a bit, however. It may be better to save my legs a bit for my other training.

Another philosophy that I’ve adopted in recent years is to alternate between very long and semi-long long runs. One week I may do a 25-miler, followed by a 20-miler, and so on. I still like this idea, but even so, perhaps I should cut back on those distances a bit.

Correlation between marathon pace and long run pace

Yet another source of controversy over the years involves the pace of long runs. Is it better to run them at or near race pace, or should they be run at a much more leisurely, conversational pace? The arguments go way back.

Over the years my long run pace has varied quite a bit, as I’ve oscillated between the differing philosophies. Generally, however, it has been about one to one and a half minutes per mile slower than the resulting marathon pace.

In comparing the average pace for all of the long runs over during the 12 weeks prior to the marathon versus the actual marathon pace, we see that the percentage of variation is 1.03%. This is not a strong correlation, but it appears that in general, the faster I’ve run my long runs, the faster I’ve run my marathons.

It may be advantageous to vary the pace of long runs. Begin the long runs at a pace of 2 minutes per mile slower than your expected marathon pace, pick up the pace a bit during the middle miles, and then run the final few miles at marathon pace.

Marathon Performance with Training Factors

Other Factors

Some factors have nothing directly to do with training, but may have a strong effect on a marathon performance. Some of these, such as ancestry and predilection to train hard, can’t be measured, but others can. Two that I’m particularly concerned about are my weight and my age. Both appear to be headed in an upward direction, and although I may be able to do something about one of them, I wonder how well they relate to my marathons.

Correlation between marathon pace and average weight

I wasn’t so sure I was going to like this one. A positive correlation would mean that keeping my weight low correlates with faster marathon times. And, like many people, I have some amount of difficulty keeping those pounds off.

The average measurement for all weigh-ins over the 5 weeks prior to the marathon was compared with marathon pace. We’ll have to assume that the scale is consistent. The analysis for the correlation between marathon pace and average weight yields a percentage of variation of 33.49%. This is a significant correlation.

And it is just as I had feared. I need to keep working at fighting that battle of the bulge.

Correlation between marathon pace and age

I was sure I wasn’t going to like this one. A positive correlation here would mean that my race paces are getting slower as my age has increased. And since my marathon times appear to be getting larger over time, and since I had not been able to manage a sub three-hour marathon since 1996, I thought the analysis would show a strong correlation.

This time the result, a variation of 5.44%, was a mildly pleasant surprise. Although the correlation is positive as expected, it isn’t too far from zero, so it is fairly weak. Maybe there still is some hope for me. Nah!

Conclusions

Some of us like to believe in cause and effect. That if we follow a good training schedule, if we just work hard enough, we’ll see a successful conclusion to our quest of running a great marathon. It ain’t, however, always necessarily so. Sometimes we can do everything right, and the race itself comes out wrong. Sometimes we don’t seem to train as hard as those other times, and we still manage to turn out a good race. For me this happens at least once per blue moon… but only during leap year. Part of this is due to environmental factors; part is due to individual differences.

One of my friends chides me about training so hard. He doesn’t appear to work very hard at his own training, and yet he seems to achieve excellent race results. I believe this is evidence of the YMMV thing at work. On a related subject, there is something else I noticed in my own data: diminishing returns. It appears that I don’t need to work very hard in order to run a 3:15 marathon. But to run 3:10 or better, I need to train much harder than one would expect for a 5 or so minute gain. This may be strictly a perception on my part, but is sure seems real.

Compiling the raw data into the table turned out to be more work than anticipated. But it was also more enjoyable than expected. I was able to re-live all those long training runs and speed sessions. Based on the analysis, I’ve learned that my training has actually been remarkably, and surprisingly consistent over the years. Some training elements, however, appear not to matter as much as expected. I had thought that Overall Training Pace, Long Run Distance and Long Run Pace would show stronger correlations than they did. I had expected that there was a strong relationship between mile repeat pace and marathon pace, so that result was not a major surprise. In addition, it appears that running higher overall mileage and doing several prior races relate fairly strongly to marathon performance. As does weight.

This brings us back to causation. Perhaps the strong correlations between marathon pace and weight, or between marathon pace and mile repeat pace are actually due to being in similar shape for both sets of data. The mile repeats do, however, still represent an important training element. It’s just that they’re not the only one. Indeed, it may be beneficial to study some combinations of training elements.

I’m going to carry on with those one-mile repeats, continue to include races in my schedule, and try to keep that weight under control anyway. Your mileage may vary.

Dan Horvath would like to thank his daughters Veronica Horvath and Valerie Horvath, as well as friend David Couper for their assistance.

BIO

Dan Horvath is a software engineering metrics consultant, who has also been known to do a bit of running and writing. He recently completed the most recent of his 59 marathons and ultras: the Mohican Trail 100, his first attempt at that distance. Dan lives in Broadview Heights, Ohio.

Six Fifty-Two

Author's Note: This article was published in Marathon & Beyond in 1999. I am republishing it here so that everyone can see how goofy I used to be. Enjoy.

Six Fifty-Two

Six Minutes and Fifty-Two Seconds had been burned into my psyche for eleven years. That is the pace per mile that I would need in order to break three hours in the marathon.

Why three hours? Mostly because it was my Boston Marathon qualifying time. But also because for me, it was my Mount Everest, Four Minute Mile and First Step on the Moon. And finally because it had simply eluded me for so long.

I had come close: 3:04 in 1978; 3:10 just two months before. I always seemed to hit The Wall around the twenty mile mark.

It was warm and sunny for the Revco Cleveland Marathon that day in May, 1989. For this race, I had followed a modified version Jeff Galloway’s training plan, which included one mile intervals and long runs of over 26 miles. I had also managed to lose a few pounds.

As the race started, I began running those 6:52 miles. The half way mark came up so fast it surprised me. Exactly one hour, thirty minutes!

At 20 miles, I began to feel those doubts and fears; but it was now or never. This time, I actually picked my pace up a bit.

Those last 6.2 miles are etched into my memory forever. As each one passed, I grew more confident. Yes, they were getting tougher. And I still wasn’t entirely sure I could keep that pace up. But I felt like I was flying; like my feet weren’t even touching the ground.

At 25 miles, I was still flying. But only when I could actually see the finish a quarter mile ahead did I really relax. At that point everything changed to slow motion. I was going to make it and nothing could stop me. The spectators were cheering wildly as I sprinted past others for whom the distance and heat had taken a greater toll. I had a strong urge to do a cartwheel (this was way before such displays became fashionable among world record breakers) just before the finish line, but decided that it was too risky. I just ran through the finish line like everyone else. My time was 2:59:16. After 11 long years, I had made my goal.

A few weeks later, a friend called to tell me that Boston had relaxed their qualifying standards. All I needed now was 3:15. The 3:10 I had done earlier in the year had me qualified! But I still had my Mount Everest, my Four Minute Mile, my First Walk on the Moon.

Close Encounters of the 3 Hour Kind:

Sub-Three Hour Marathon Hits and Misses

Of Dan Horvath’s 42 marathons, 11 have been near misses (3:01 to 3:05), and 7 were successfully run in two hours, fifty-nine minutes or two hours, fifty-eight minutes. The others were slower, and were run either as training runs or as a poorly executed attempt that ended in a crash and burn. Here is a list of those 18 that were hits or near misses:

Event Date Time

Revco Cleveland Marathon, Cleveland, OH May 14, 1978 3 Hours, 4 Minutes

Revco Cleveland Marathon, Cleveland, OH May 21, 1989 2 Hours, 59 Minutes

Detroit Free Press Marathon, Detroit, MI October 15, 1989 3 Hours, 1 Minute

Detroit Free Press Marathon, Detroit, MI October 20, 1991 3 Hours, 5 Minutes

Scotty Hanton Marathon, Port Huron, MI September 5, 1992 2 Hours, 59 Minutes

Detroit Free Press Marathon, Detroit, MI October 18, 1992 3 Hours, 3 Minutes

Scotty Hanton Marathon, Port Huron, MI September 4, 1993 3 Hours, 1 Minute

Detroit Free Press Marathon, Detroit, MI October 17, 1993 3 Hours, 1 Minute

Ohio/Michigan Marathon, Toledo, OH July 10, 1994 2 Hours, 58 Minutes

Boston Marathon, Boston, MA April 17, 1995 3 Hours, 4 Minutes

Scotty Hanton Marathon, Port Huron, MI September 3, 1995 2 Hours, 59 Minutes

Detroit Free Press Marathon, Detroit, MI October 15, 1995 2 Hours, 59 Minutes

Ohio/Michigan Marathon, Toledo, OH July 14, 1996 2 Hours, 58 Minutes

Toe to Tow Marathon, Cleveland, OH October 14, 1996 2 Hours, 59 Minutes

Boston, Boston Marathon, MA April 21, 1997 3 Hours, 5 Minutes

Ohio/Michigan Marathon, Toledo, OH July 13, 1997 3 Hours, 5 Minutes

Scotty Hanton Marathon, Port Huron, MI August 31, 1998 3 Hours, 4 Minutes

Chicago Marathon, Chicago, IL October 11, 1998 3 Hours, 5 Minutes

How to Break the Three Hour Barrier

In the midst of the second running boom, average and median times for runners completing marathons have soared. In the first running boom of the seventies and early eighties, most of the runners in big-city marathons would have finished by about three and a half hours. In the late nineties, however, as the participation has skyrocketed, so have the times. Nowadays, the average runner in most marathons is still on the roads four and a half hours into the event.

There is nothing wrong with running just to finish, or otherwise moving at a slow pace. In fact, running just to finish should be the goal of most first time marathoners. Some however, still do aspire to certain time goals. Of course those time goals will vary by individuals, but the ones that end in zeros often become popular yardsticks.

Three hours is tough. To run those 26 consecutive six fifty-two miles is quite a task for most non-elite runners. Yet it can be done. All that’s required is the right training and mental attitude. Nice race conditions are helpful as well. Here is what worked for me. It may or may not work for others.

Soul Searching

The first question to ask yourself is, why do you want to do this? Of course there are plenty of other running-related goals out there. Why this one? For me, it had been something just beyond my reach for many years, and then it evolved into a personal standard of excellence. But a reason for one runner’s goal isn’t necessarily the same for another’s.

The second question is, how much are you willing to sacrifice? For any goal, there is a price to pay. In terms of time, it cost me about 8 to 10 hours per week strictly running, plus 2 to 5 more hours on related activities such as weight lifting, stretching and driving to and from other races. In terms of wear and tear on my body from hard training, it’s difficult to say. I was frequently tired and sore, and I had my share of overuse injuries, but I would have to say that the benefits of hard training outweigh the costs. Each runner with any kind of goal needs to determine the amount of time and effort they are prepared to endure.

Training Plans

Like many runners, I looked for a recipe to follow. I only asked that someone just tell me exactly what to do in order to crack 3 hours, and I would meet or exceed that. Several sources provided detailed training plans that just didn’t work out for me in the early going. It took some time to realize that a cookie-cutter, recipe type training plan just wasn’t going to work. I learned that I needed to develop my own, by borrowing the best ideas from the different sources, and tailoring them into something practical and doable for my lifestyle and running capability.

Tempo runs? Mile Intervals? Hill training? Long runs? Marathon pace runs? You probably need to do them all. Variety, and the proper mix of training runs are the key to any successful training program. In my own case, there is very little that I didn’t do. And although some methods and techniques work better than others, it’s the whole, the sum total, that’s truly important. And the most important facet of any training plan is simply to have a plan.

Here then, is a list of the training elements that have been essential to my own success. How you use them, and how you incorporate them into your own plans will depend on you.

Injury prevention – Minor injuries will slow you down and put you behind in your training, while major ones will take you out of the running entirely. Fortunately, there are as many ways to prevent injuries as there are to get injured. The ones that usually work the best are primarily rest, stretching and strength training, but the proper combination of all of the training elements is the most important consideration.

Build-up – You need to be in shape to begin with. Most training plans are based on 12 to 16 week build-up periods. I have been most successful by staying in near marathon shape year-round, with the three to four month increase in intensity/speed prior to the event.

Long runs – These are the cornerstone of any marathon training program. My approach, however, is different from most. I do them weekly, year-round. I consider any run over 18 miles to be a “long run”. Three months or so prior to a race, however, I will start to run still longer long runs. The typical twenty milers will become twenty-four to twenty-six milers. It helps to schedule some long runs that alternate between a very long 25 one week, followed by an easier 20 the next. The pace of these runs is extremely important. I learned that last year when I ran all of them too fast and wondered why I was tired all the time. Don’t leave your best runs in training; take it easy for your long runs. An 8 to 8:30 per mile pace is about right for a three-hour marathoner. For confidence and pacing practice, you might want to try running the last 4 to 5 miles of one or two of your long runs at that magical 6:52 pace. Don’t, however, try this any more than that!

“Other” races – It helps many marathoners to run other races during their build-up. Some will even use another marathon as a training run. Although it may help to schedule some rest around some of these other races, you need to keep an attitude that you’re just “training through” them. Don’t lose focus of your ultimate goal.

Rest – Every guide to marathon training stresses the need to build rest into your program. Many recommend a cycle of three hard weeks followed by one easy one. This regimen has worked for me as well. I always plan one or two easy days (read: completely off) per week, one easy week (1/2 to 2/3 normal mileage) per month, and one easy month (say, January) per year.

Hills – For some reason I don’t mind running around an oval over and over for my speed workouts, but I do mind running up and down the same hill, over and over. Maybe it’s just me, but one way to avoid this boredom/tedium is to find a very hilly course to run on, and to do it regularly. Regardless of how you do your hill workouts, you do need to do them. I’ve only been successful at the sub-3 game where I had incorporate weekly hill runs for the preceding 3 to 4 months.

Tempo runs – There are plenty of excellent guides to tempo running. One of the ones that influenced me was by Jack Daniels. I like do a three to four mile run at my current half-marathon pace – usually around 6:30 to 6:40 per mile. I try to fit these in about ever other week, although a race (anywhere from 5K to 15K) will also work. Tempo runs are best for periods of time when you’re not racing.

Mile intervals – I learned this trick from Galloway’s Book on Running. For a sub-three hour marathon, the recommendation was to gradually work up to 12 repeats of 6:25 miles. My approach has been to work up to eight or nine repeats fairly fast, and then gradually increase the speed of each one. By the time it’s ready for the taper, I might be doing about them at a slightly faster pace, maybe 6:15 to 6:20. I have also done them weekly, usually mid-week, unless I had a marathon pace run scheduled for the same week.

Marathon pace runs – These are training runs done at marathon pace. After a warm up of a few miles, you should run 4 to 12 miles at your goal pace of 6:52 or so. These should never be done more often than every two weeks, and very little other speedwork should be planned for the same week.

400 to 800 meter repeats – These may have some benefits for marathon runners, but perhaps not as much as the mile intervals, hills and tempo runs. It’s important to schedule these at least two days away from other speedwork efforts.

Strength training – Push-ups and stomach crunches need to be done fairly often: maybe 4 to 5 times per week. Weight training should be done two or three times per week. Light weights (of course) with 3 sets of 8 to 15 repetitions works for most runners. I feel that strength training helps the leg muscles as much as the upper body. I use extremely light weights, however, for my leg curls, leg extensions and squats. I do a variety of upper body weight exercises too, but I concentrate most on arm curls and the bench press.

Stretching – As we marathoners age, this element becomes more and more important. I concentrate mostly on the hamstrings, quads, IT Band and calves. There is plenty of information available on the types of stretches that you can do, and when you should do them. I do some stretching after most hard runs, and then more in the evenings.

Taper – This last element should not necessarily be considered the least. Although you should cut back on your total mileage for at least two weeks leading up to your marathon, you should not necessarily decrease your intensity. A good rule of thumb that has worked for me is to cut mileage back to about 50 to 60 percent for those last two weeks, and to do the same with my speedwork. In other words, I might come down from 65 miles per week to about 35, and from 9 total miles of speedwork to about 5.

Execution (of the race plan)

Yes, you need a race plan. And you need to stick to it in order to be successful. For me, this was extremely simple: run each mile in six minutes, fifty-two seconds. Sometimes it might be necessary to adjust for a slightly slower start, but my plans invariably involved running even splits. All of my successful sub-three hour efforts came with even to slightly negative splits. All of my near-misses were the result of positive splits. And yours should too. Research has shown that running even, or slightly negative splits yields the fastest times at all distances.

Poorly executed marathon race plans almost always take the form of starting out too fast. And if you’ve trained properly, a seven or so minute pace for the first few miles will feel like you’re barely moving. Resist that temptation to pick it up; patience is the most common virtue among successful marathoners!

Finally, recognize that the real race always begins at mile 20. That’s time when the miles have really begun to take their toll, and if you’re mentally and physically tough enough to pick your tempo up at this point, you’ll be successful.

Things really are looking up

During my last post. I joked about looking up as in looking up for meteors, and that my actual running was not exactly looking up. Well, I'm pleased to report that I now believe that my running is improving. Mind you, I am still not supposed to be doing this. But I just can't not do it any longer. I go back to the doc next week, and we'll see what he says.

Improving is a relative term. I can say, however, that I'm running slightly farther and slightly faster these days. It helps to have some good friends to run with. Thank you, Harold Dravenstott, Michelle Wolff, and Andy Wolff. I'd be lost without you guys.

Just for posterity, I want to note that I take at least three days off per week, I haven't (yet) gone into double-digit miles, and my average pace has "improved" to around 12-minutes-per-mile. I also still do the PT, and I think it's still helping. I should also note that I am still unable to do a calf raise on my right side. Still working on that.

The Brunswick Marathon is a week and a half away. I am thinking about going for the half-marathon distance, but I don't know whether I'm capable. Somebody stop me.

Looking Up

You may think that looking up means something like, 'things are looking up and I can run well once again.' Sorry, but that's laughable.

Looking up is what I was doing during this morning's run. I was scanning the skies for meteors of Geminid Meteor Shower fame. And I saw a few. One of them was quite bright. It made my morning.

Actually, my run wasn't so bad either. More tests will be forthcoming, however.

Running the Big Island

What happens when you’ve gone about as far as you can go? Turn back, of course. And that’s what I’m doing after three and a half miles southward, through the town of Kailua-Kona, at 4:30 AM. I had been looking for the Southern Cross, but it’s apparently obscured by clouds. At least I did get to see a few bright stars. I pick up the pace, trying to run each mile faster than the last one, no easy feat for someone who no longer runs so much. But I do manage to get back to the King Kamehameha Hotel in one piece, just as the rain begins.

The rain from this ‘Kona Cyclone’ would continue for days, but the bigger problem is that my back and hip began to hurt after this run. Probably something to do with carrying all this extra weight on these “runs.” Because of this, I take a day off in order to feel refreshed for my next run.

On the lanai after a Big-Island run

That next run is to the North, to Old Kona Airport Beach Park. It’s not far; Debbie and I had walked around here the day before. What better place to run than a ‘runway?’ The asphalt – and there’s a lot of it – is black and spooky-dark at this hour. It’s also crumbling away. The park is kind of cool, however, with a beach and a walking trail through some gardens. All I do this time is run to the end of the runway and back out. Maybe next time I’ll add in the nature trail.

I do a second run on this runway, but once again, I skip the nature trail. It's a neat place to run from Kona however. I'll keep it in mind.

Now it's time to move on to the Kohala region, where we will be staying for the second and final five days. It's only about 30 miles from Kona, but the resorts here are totally different. And not always in a good way. The Hilton Waikoloa Village is just too much. Too much of everything. Since my hip still aches, I only run three miles. It's not pretty. Oh, the area is, it's just that my run isn't.

I used to do some epic runs in this area. It was up, up, up, Waikoloa Road for seven-plus miles, before turning back. I used to be able to see four of the five Big Island Volcanoes, plus one on Maui, all while the sun was rising. We do drive this, and it's still awesome. It's just too bad that a 20-mile run is totally out of the question these days.

I do one short practice run to head towards Waikoloa Road before turning back. Looks like about two miles, just to get there. It's a couple more days before I venture up Waikoloa Road for real. Ready? Here goes.

~~~ NOTE - there was a description of a run here that I've rewritten for the MCRR Newsletter. Here is the new version. ~ Dan

Big Run on the Big Island

We’re headed home tomorrow, so this is my last run for this trip here on the Big Island of Hawaii. Venturing out of the Hilton Waikoloa Village in the early morning darkness, I decide to make it an epic one. I will consider it so if I can make it a mile or so up Waikoloa Road before turning back.

During past visits to the area (we’re talking over twelve years ago), I would run a couple miles over to Waikoloa Road, and then up, up, up for seven-ish miles each way for a total of twenty vertically challenging miles. What made these runs epic was not only the challenge of the mountain itself, but also the stunning scenery. If you look up the word awesome in the dictionary, they have a picture of the Big Island. Nothing – no place on Planet Earth – is more so.

Since I’m still recovering from surgery, I know that twenty, or even ten miles are out of the question today. But if I can just get a little way up this mountain (it’s called Hualalai), I will be satisfied.

After a couple miles on Waikoloa Beach Road, I run across Queen Ka’ahumanu Highway and onto  Waikoloa Road. Immediately, I’m going uphill. Although it’s not very steep, it is challenging because it’s non-stop. Consequently, I slow down (not that I was moving fast to begin with). Although it’s pitch dark, I am still aware of the lava flow on both sides of the road and on for miles all around. Without trees, buildings, or even shrubbery, I have a full view of a sky decorated with impossibly bright stars.

I look for the Southern Cross, and I eventually spot it, dancing across the Southern Horizon. But not before I also spot a couple meteors that I attribute to the upcoming Geminid Shower, and also the False Cross, which is also in the South and also consists of four stars in a diamond pattern. But once I see the Real Cross, there’s no mistaking it. It’s funny, but now I can’t seem to unsee it. For some reason, I consider this sighting (which we can’t do at our usual latitude) a good omen.

After a mile and a half (longer than planned), I begin to turn back, but I also actually stop to admire the pre-dawn view. This is something I almost never do on a solo run, but it's impossible not to. You see, now that it's beginning to get light, I am looking at five volcanoes: 8,271 foot Hualalai to my left, 13,679 foot Mauna Loa, the planet's most massive volcano behind it yet still visible, 13,803 foot Mauna Kea behind me (the Earth's tallest mountain, measured from its base, 5,480 foot extinct Kohala Volcano to my right, and across the sea beyond Kohala and barely visible, 10,023 foot Haleakala on Maui. The sweeping views also allow me to see the lights of the resort area far below as well as other towns up and down the coast.

Have you ever enjoyed a run so much, you wanted it to never stop? Me neither. But this run is as close as it gets. It's giving me chicken skin as I return to my resort. I've only run 7 1/2 miles (compared with those twenty-milers in years past), but it's every bit as awesome as any run I've ever done. Ever.

Running up Waikoloa Road

Here's a link to our travel blog post, in case you want to hear more about the Big Island.

Putting my best foot forward

Where else am I gonna put it? Now that it's a couple days past BW50K (which felt like a 50K, even though I only ran 9 miles), I can talk some more about running.

I did a few yesterday, and a downright nice five and half with friends today. It was almost like old times: several of my early-morning peeps were there, and I even had some company for my slow sojourn. I had nearly forgotten how much I love running.

Now, I remember.